Flight number record
AS 407
Alaska Airlines · Chicago to Seattle
- Route
- ORD → SEA
- Departs
- 15:35
- Flights
- 358
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 407, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 407 draws a C. About one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is about an hour behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 358 flights, with a median arrival 4 minutes late.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so AS 407 runs 10 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 102 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
67.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 353 completed flights
Avg delay
60 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.12%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
8.5%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 358 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Schedule
When AS 407 flies
AS 407 flies ORD to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 15:35, used on 52 of 358 flights, with 15:09 (50 flights) and 15:20 (44 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 15:3552 flights14.5%
- Departs 15:0950 flights14.0%
- Departs 15:2044 flights12.3%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 15:35 departure sits in the 2pm–5pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 72.4%, and AS 407 runs 5 points worse at 67.4%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
Against the route
AS 407 next to ORD to SEA
Every carrier on ORD to SEA combined arrived on time 68.5% of the time across 5,572 flights, so AS 407 is about level with it. Alaska flew 1,799 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 67.5% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight trails by 12 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 407thin sample | 358 | 67.4% | 60 min | 1.12% | C |
| All Alaska Airlines on ORD–SEA | 1,799 | 67.5% | 63 min | 1.67% | C |
| All carriers on ORD–SEA | 5,572 | 68.5% | 64 min | 1.45% | C |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 293,372 | 79.1% | 52 min | 1.28% | B |
Across the year
AS 407 quarter by quarter
AS 407 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 72.5% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 54.2%, a swing of 18 points on roughly 90 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202591 flights71.4%
- Oct–Dec 202587 flights54.2%
- Jan–Mar 202689 flights70.5%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights72.5%
Scale runs 45% to 80%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 407 ranged from 60.8% on Friday to 72.0% on Thursday. With about 51 flights behind each day, a spread of 11 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Delay causes
Why AS 407 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 44% of the 6,852 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 44%Late-arriving aircraft
- 34%National Airspace System
- 18%Carrier
- 4%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
44% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 6,852 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 10 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 6,852 delay minutes reported on AS 407.
Cancellations sit at 1.12% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.28%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
8.5% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 1,721 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 358 flights under AS 407 in the data flew ORD to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 358 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 407
For a booking, read AS 407 as 67.4% on time with 1.12% cancelled over 358 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to SEA, every carrier and departure
- SEA to ORD, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 2041 on the same route75.1%
- United Airlines 2211 on the same route54.7%
- Alaska Airlines 329 on the same route69.7%
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.