Flight number record
AS 407
Alaska Airlines · Chicago to Seattle
- Route
- ORD → SEA
- Departs
- 15:43
- Flights
- 358
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 407, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 407 draws a D. Roughly one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is about an hour behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 358 flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes late.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so AS 407 runs 14 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 139 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
63.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 352 completed flights
Avg delay
66 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.40%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
12.2%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 358 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 12.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Schedule
When AS 407 flies
AS 407 flies ORD to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 15:43, used on 83 of 358 flights, with 15:35 (52 flights) next.
- Departs 15:4383 flights23.2%
- Departs 15:3552 flights14.5%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 15:43 departure sits in the 2pm–5pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 71.9%, and AS 407 runs 9 points worse at 63.4%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
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Against the route
AS 407 next to ORD to SEA
Every carrier on ORD to SEA combined arrived on time 67.5% of the time across 5,542 flights, so AS 407 is 4 points behind it. Alaska flew 1,778 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 65.4% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight trails by 16 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 407thin sample | 358 | 63.4% | 66 min | 1.40% | D |
| All Alaska Airlines on ORD–SEA | 1,778 | 65.4% | 68 min | 1.80% | C |
| All carriers on ORD–SEA | 5,542 | 67.5% | 66 min | 1.37% | C |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 407 quarter by quarter
AS 407 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 72.5% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2026 at 42.6%, a swing of 30 points on roughly 90 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202529 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202587 flights54.2%
- Jan–Mar 202689 flights70.5%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights72.5%
- Jul–Sep 202662 flights42.6%
Scale runs 35% to 80%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 407 did best on Saturday at 76.0% on time and worst on Wednesday at 55.8%. Each day rests on about 51 flights, so a gap of 20 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 407 runs when it is late
The 129 late arrivals split 44 under half an hour, 42 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 43 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early60 flights17.0%
- Within 15 min163 flights46.3%
- 15–29 min late44 flights12.5%
- 30–59 min late42 flights11.9%
- 1–2 hours late24 flights6.8%
- 2+ hours late19 flights5.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 352 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
19 of 111 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 17% of them. In the other direction, 37 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at SEA.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 407
The latest arrival of the period was on 31 August 2026, 6 hours 15 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The same cause led on four of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 31 August 2026 | 6 hours 15 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 30 January 2026 | 4 hours 59 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 6 March 2026 | 4 hours 33 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 18 October 2025 | 4 hours 27 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 1 August 2026 | 3 hours 49 minutes | Carrier |
Delay causes
Why AS 407 runs late
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 48% of the 8,507 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 48%Late-arriving aircraft
- 30%National Airspace System
- 18%Carrier
- 4%Extreme weather
48% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 8,507 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 11 to one. The split is drawn from 8,507 delay minutes reported on AS 407.
Cancellations sit at 1.40% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.28%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
12.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
At 1,721 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 358 flights under AS 407 in the data flew ORD to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 358 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 407
For a booking, AS 407 is a flight to put a long connection behind. 12.2% of its completed flights arrived an hour or more late, which a short layover will not absorb. If the onward flight is on a separate ticket, the risk sits with you.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to SEA, every carrier and departure
- SEA to ORD, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 2041 on the same route72.8%
- Alaska Airlines 587 on the same route65.9%
- Alaska Airlines 329 on the same route62.5%
- United Airlines 2211 on the same route57.6%
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.