Flight number record
AS 386
Alaska Airlines · Seattle to Minneapolis
- Route
- SEA → MSP
- Departs
- 18:38
- Flights
- 282
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 386, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 386 lands a B, 7 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in six arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by roughly 50 minutes on average. That rests on 282 flights, with a median arrival 9 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AS 386's record is 7 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 65 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
83.8%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 278 completed flights
Avg delay
48 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.42%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
3.6%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 282 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 9 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Schedule
When AS 386 flies
AS 386 flies SEA to MSP without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 18:38, used on 86 of 282 flights, with 18:40 (36 flights) and 18:39 (36 flights) next.
- Departs 18:3886 flights30.5%
- Departs 18:4036 flights12.8%
- Departs 18:3936 flights12.8%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 18:38 departure sits in the 5pm–8pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 68.0%, and AS 386 runs 16 points better at 83.8%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.
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Against the route
AS 386 next to SEA to MSP
Every carrier on SEA to MSP combined arrived on time 87.2% of the time across 2,676 flights, so AS 386 is 3 points behind it. Alaska flew 931 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 83.9% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight beats by 4 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 386thin sample | 282 | 83.8% | 48 min | 1.42% | B |
| All Alaska Airlines on SEA–MSP | 931 | 83.9% | 45 min | 0.86% | B+ |
| All carriers on SEA–MSP | 2,676 | 87.2% | 64 min | 0.78% | A+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 386 quarter by quarter
AS 386 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 89.4% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2026 at 77.8%, a swing of 12 points on roughly 71 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202526 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202580 flights83.3%
- Jan–Mar 202674 flights83.3%
- Apr–Jun 202666 flights89.4%
- Jul–Sep 202636 flights77.8%
Scale runs 70% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 386 ranged from 80.0% on Sunday to 88.9% on Wednesday. With about 40 flights behind each day, a spread of 9 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 386 runs when it is late
AS 386 often beats the schedule: 105 of 278 completed flights, 38%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 45 late arrivals split 20 under half an hour, 15 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 10 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early105 flights37.8%
- Within 15 min128 flights46.0%
- 15–29 min late20 flights7.2%
- 30–59 min late15 flights5.4%
- 1–2 hours late6 flights2.2%
- 2+ hours late4 flights1.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 278 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
16 of 54 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 30% of them. 7 flights left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 386
The latest arrival of the period was on 17 March 2026, 2 hours 49 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The same cause led on three of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 17 March 2026 | 2 hours 49 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 28 December 2025 | 2 hours 37 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 14 April 2026 | 2 hours 25 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 11 September 2025 | 2 hours | Carrier |
| 9 August 2026 | 1 hour 47 minutes | Carrier |
Delay causes
Why AS 386 runs late
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 57% of the 2,136 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 57%Late-arriving aircraft
- 29%Carrier
- 14%National Airspace System
- 0%Extreme weather
57% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 2,136 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 57 to one. The split is drawn from 2,136 delay minutes reported on AS 386.
Cancellations sit at 1.42% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.6% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
The 1,399 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The same number turns up on one other city pair in the data, including SEA to ANC (13), but none flew often enough under AS 386 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to SEA to MSP only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 282 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 386
For a booking, read AS 386 as 83.8% on time with 1.42% cancelled over 282 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- SEA to MSP, every carrier and departure
- MSP to SEA, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 943 on the same route96.4%
- Delta Air Lines 536 on the same route90.6%
- Alaska Airlines 555 on the same route85.2%
- Delta Air Lines 949 on the same route81.5%
- Delta Air Lines 941 on the same route88.9%
- Delta Air Lines 953 on the same route90.9%
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.