Flight number record
AS 386
Alaska Airlines · Seattle to Minneapolis
- Route
- SEA → MSP
- Departs
- 18:38
- Flights
- 305
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 386, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 386 lands a B, about a point better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about 45 minutes on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 305 flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes early.
Key figures
On time
78.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 301 completed flights
Avg delay
45 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.31%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
4.3%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 305 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 8 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Schedule
When AS 386 flies
AS 386 flies SEA to MSP without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 18:38, used on 96 of 305 flights, with 18:37 (49 flights) and 18:39 (36 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 18:3896 flights31.5%
- Departs 18:3749 flights16.1%
- Departs 18:3936 flights11.8%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 18:38 departure sits in the 5pm–8pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 68.2%, and AS 386 runs 10 points better at 78.4%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.
Against the route
AS 386 next to SEA to MSP
Every carrier on SEA to MSP combined arrived on time 85.5% of the time across 2,689 flights, so AS 386 is 7 points behind it. Alaska flew 953 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 80.0% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, close to this flight's figure.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 386thin sample | 305 | 78.4% | 45 min | 1.31% | B |
| All Alaska Airlines on SEA–MSP | 953 | 80.0% | 44 min | 1.05% | B |
| All carriers on SEA–MSP | 2,689 | 85.5% | 55 min | 0.89% | A+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 293,372 | 79.1% | 52 min | 1.28% | B |
Across the year
AS 386 quarter by quarter
AS 386 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 89.4% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2025 at 61.2%, a swing of 28 points on roughly 76 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202585 flights61.2%
- Oct–Dec 202580 flights83.3%
- Jan–Mar 202674 flights83.3%
- Apr–Jun 202666 flights89.4%
Scale runs 55% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 386 did best on Wednesday at 87.5% on time and worst on Sunday at 71.4%. Each day rests on about 44 flights, so a gap of 16 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Delay causes
Why AS 386 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 61% of the 2,924 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 61%Late-arriving aircraft
- 25%Carrier
- 14%National Airspace System
- 0%Extreme weather
61% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 2,924 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 61 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 2,924 delay minutes reported on AS 386.
Cancellations sit at 1.31% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 4.3% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
The 1,399 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
Every one of the 305 flights under AS 386 in the data flew SEA to MSP. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 305 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 386
For a booking, AS 386 is one of the weaker ways to fly SEA to MSP: 7 points below the route as a whole. If the schedule allows, compare it with the other departures listed on the route page before settling on this one.
Related
Where to go next
- SEA to MSP, every carrier and departure
- MSP to SEA, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 943 on the same route95.3%
- Alaska Airlines 555 on the same route84.0%
- Delta Air Lines 536 on the same route90.6%
- Delta Air Lines 949 on the same route83.2%
- Delta Air Lines 941 on the same route85.5%
- Delta Air Lines 953 on the same route91.2%
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.