Holiday travel
Martin Luther King Jr. weekend flight delays
The long weekend ending on the third Monday of January.
Based on 2026 and earlier data. 2027 results expected around March 2027. Historical statistics, not a forecast and not live status.
Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 2027 falls on Friday 15 January 2027 to Monday 18 January 2027. What follows is based on 2026 data and the years before it, back to 2023; figures for 2027 itself should arrive around March 2027, once the US DOT has published the months it covers.
The data backs up Martin Luther King Jr. weekend's reputation: 3 of its last 3 years showed a measurable effect. Still, 1 year ran more punctually than normal, so the effect cuts both ways.
Of the 4 Martin Luther King Jr. weekends on record here (2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026), 4 moved a headline figure past the test and 0 did not.
Key figures for 2026
On time, 2026
76.8%
Normal weeks: 80.3%
Avg delay
69 min
Normal weeks: 77 min
Cancelled
0.74%
Normal weeks: 5.54%
Flights
70,081
Friday 16 January to Monday 19 January 2026
Against the two weeks either side, the on-time rate moved +0.9 points in 2023, −17.4 points in 2024, −2.0 points in 2025 and −3.5 points in 2026, an average of −5.5. Average delay moved −9 minutes in 2023, +16 minutes in 2024, −8 minutes in 2025 and −8 minutes in 2026, and cancellations −1.15 points in 2023, +7.11 points in 2024, −1.44 points in 2025 and −4.80 points in 2026.
2026's window scheduled 70,081 flights, 17,520 a day, which is +0% on the 17,471 a day of the weeks around it; over the years in the data the holiday's total grew 3%.
The share of arrivals an hour or more late, the figure that decides a connection, was 5.4% in 2023 (normally 7.1%), 17.9% in 2024 (normally 8.5%), 6.3% in 2025 (normally 6.3%) and 7.7% in 2026 (normally 7.3%).
Year on year
Every Martin Luther King Jr. weekend in the data
| Year | Flights | On time | Normal weeks | Change | Cancelled | Normal weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 68,366 | 80.1% | 79.2% | +0.9 | 0.45% | 1.60% |
| 2024 | 70,276 | 59.0% | 76.4% | −17.4 | 10.42% | 3.31% |
| 2025 | 68,574 | 79.9% | 81.9% | −2.0 | 1.85% | 3.29% |
| 2026 | 70,081 | 76.8% | 80.3% | −3.5 | 0.74% | 5.54% |
“Normal weeks” are the two weeks either side of the holiday, leaving out other holiday periods. Change is in percentage points.
Patterns
What repeats from year to year
The most punctual Martin Luther King Jr. weekend in the data was 2023 at 80.1% on time; the least was 2024 at 59.0%, 21.1 points lower.
If you want to avoid the fullest airports, the peak days were Friday 13 January 2023 (18,422 flights), Monday 15 January 2024 (18,620 flights), Monday 20 January 2025 (18,595 flights) and Monday 19 January 2026 (18,876 flights).
Each year's weakest day: Friday 13 January 2023 (75.1%), Monday 15 January 2024 (50.2%), Monday 20 January 2025 (69.1%) and Sunday 18 January 2026 (72.4%). In 2 of 4 years that was the last day of the window, when the return rush and any lingering disruption meet.
The Monday has been the day to avoid, 68.5% on time on average across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026; the Saturday has been the day to pick at 79.1%. Martin Luther King Jr. weekend lands on the same weekdays every year, so this is a pattern to plan around.
By departure time, the 5am–8am window averaged 83.1% on time across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and the 5pm–8pm window 66.9%. That 16.2 points gap is bigger than the holiday effect itself.
Cancellations ranged from 0.45% in 2023 to 10.42% in 2024, when Chicago (MDW) was the worst-hit large airport at 35.68%.
Airports and airlines
Who handles Martin Luther King Jr. weekend best
Chicago (ORD) is the airport to worry about: across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 it averaged −14.4 points against its own normal weeks. Boston (BOS) and Denver (DEN) followed, and Honolulu (HNL) coped best at +5.0.
Worst year-on-normal airport, year by year: Boston (BOS, −13.3 points) in 2023, Chicago (ORD, −50.8 points) in 2024, Denver (DEN, −17.4 points) in 2025 and Minneapolis (MSP, −24.0 points) in 2026.
Choosing the airline changes the odds by 12.7 points on average: Alaska Airlines led at 77.3%, Delta Air Lines came next at 76.9%, and JetBlue Airways trailed at 64.6%.
The holiday changed some airlines more than others: JetBlue Airways averaged −10.6 points against its normal weeks, Alaska Airlines −0.4.
The most punctual large carrier each year was PSA Airlines in 2023 (90.0%), Hawaiian Airlines in 2024 (73.5%), Hawaiian Airlines in 2025 (92.5%) and Alaska Airlines in 2026 (85.8%).
OGG to HNL and HNL to OGG were among the five busiest routes in every year, so their figures on the year pages are worth comparing across years.
What to do with this
Planning Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 2027
For Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 2027: fly the Saturday if the dates allow; take a 5am–8am departure; and allow more connection time at Chicago (ORD) and Boston (BOS). Each year page has the day-by-day and airport-by-airport detail.
On time means arriving less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time. Average delay counts delayed flights only; cancellations are a share of every scheduled flight. A holiday is compared with the two weeks either side of it, leaving out days that belong to other holidays. The measurable-effect test asks for 3 points of on-time rate, 5 minutes of average delay or 2 points of cancellations; airports, routes and carriers need 500 flights in the window to be ranked. The US DOT publishes on-time data about two months after the month it covers.
Related
Where to go next
- Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 202380.1%
- Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 202459.0%
- Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 202579.9%
- Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 202676.8%
- Every US travel holiday
- The holidays that fly better than a normal week
- The busiest US travel days, and what they cost in punctuality
- How the figures are computed
Holiday windows are fixed by rule each year. See every window.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.