Flight number record

DL 2954

Delta Air Lines · Minneapolis to Bozeman

Route: MSP → BZN
Departs: 18:40
Flights: 325
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s DL 2954, check with Delta Air Lines.

DL 2954 sits in the middle of the pack with a C+. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 5 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land about 55 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 325 flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes early.

The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so DL 2954 runs 5 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 52 extra late arrivals.

On time

72.4%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 322 completed flights

Avg delay

55 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

0.92%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

8.4%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 325 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.4% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.

Schedule

When DL 2954 flies

DL 2954 flies MSP to BZN without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 18:40, used on 60 of 325 flights, with 22:30 (55 flights) and 21:59 (52 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.

Departs 18:4060 flights18.5%
Departs 22:3055 flights16.9%
Departs 21:5952 flights16.0%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 18:40 departure sits in the 5pm–8pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 68.2%, and DL 2954 runs 4 points better at 72.4%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.

Against the route

DL 2954 next to MSP to BZN

Every carrier on MSP to BZN combined arrived on time 79.8% of the time across 805 flights, so DL 2954 is 7 points behind it. Across its whole network Delta Air Lines managed 81.6%, which this flight trails by 9 points.

DL 2954 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
DL 2954thin sample	325	72.4%	55 min	0.92%	C+
All Delta Air Lines on MSP–BZN	805	79.8%	53 min	0.50%	B+
All carriers on MSP–BZN	805	79.8%	53 min	0.50%	B+
Delta Air Lines, whole network	1,038,570	81.6%	71 min	1.62%	B

Across the year

DL 2954 quarter by quarter

DL 2954 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 79.3% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 54.0%, a swing of 25 points on roughly 81 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202592 flights79.3%
Oct–Dec 202591 flights71.1%
Jan–Mar 202651 flights54.0%
Apr–Jun 202691 flights76.7%

Scale runs 45% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, DL 2954 did best on Wednesday at 80.9% on time and worst on Sunday at 61.4%. Each day rests on about 46 flights, so a gap of 20 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why DL 2954 runs late

One category carries most of the weight here. Carrier accounts for 50% of the 4,884 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Carrier
50%
Late-arriving aircraft
30%
National Airspace System
14%
Extreme weather
5%

The largest share of delay minutes, 50%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 2,462 of the 4,884 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 4,884 delay minutes reported on DL 2954.

Cancellations sit at 0.92% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

8.4% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about 55 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.

The 874 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

Every one of the 325 flights under DL 2954 in the data flew MSP to BZN. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 325 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking DL 2954

For a booking, DL 2954 is one of the weaker ways to fly MSP to BZN: 7 points below the route as a whole. If the schedule allows, compare it with the other departures listed on the route page before settling on this one.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Delta Air Lines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures