Flight number record
AS 433
Alaska Airlines · Tampa to San Diego
- Route
- TPA → SAN
- Departs
- 09:00
- Flights
- 253
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 433, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 433 earns an A+. Close to nine flights in ten arrive inside the 15-minute window the DOT uses to define an on-time arrival, which puts it 10 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. When something does go wrong the average delay runs about an hour. That rests on 253 flights, with a median arrival 16 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AS 433's record is 10 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 103 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
87.6%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 251 completed flights
Avg delay
55 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.79%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
3.6%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 253 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 16 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Schedule
When AS 433 flies
AS 433 flies TPA to SAN without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 09:00, used on 41 of 253 flights, with 08:05 (33 flights) and 09:29 (30 flights) next.
- Departs 09:0041 flights16.2%
- Departs 08:0533 flights13.0%
- Departs 09:2930 flights11.9%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 09:00 departure sits in the 8am–11am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 83.9%, and AS 433 runs 4 points better at 87.6%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.
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Against the route
AS 433 next to TPA to SAN
Every carrier on TPA to SAN combined arrived on time 73.3% of the time across 656 flights, so AS 433 is 14 points ahead of it. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight beats by 8 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 433thin sample | 253 | 87.6% | 55 min | 0.79% | A+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on TPA–SANthin sample | 364 | 82.5% | 58 min | 0.82% | B+ |
| All carriers on TPA–SAN | 656 | 73.3% | 51 min | 0.46% | C+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 433 quarter by quarter
Quarter by quarter AS 433 held fairly steady: 86.8% in Oct–Dec 2025, 90.0% in Jan–Mar 2026 and 82.9% in Apr–Jun 2026. A spread of 7 points is about what a sample of this size moves on its own, so the annual figure is a fair summary.
- Jul–Sep 202530 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202591 flights86.8%
- Jan–Mar 202690 flights90.0%
- Apr–Jun 202642 flights82.9%
Scale runs 75% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 433 did best on Thursday at 94.1% on time and worst on Saturday at 77.1%. Each day rests on about 36 flights, so a gap of 17 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 433 runs when it is late
AS 433 often beats the schedule: 132 of 251 completed flights, 53%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 31 late arrivals split 12 under half an hour, 10 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 9 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early132 flights52.6%
- Within 15 min88 flights35.1%
- 15–29 min late12 flights4.8%
- 30–59 min late10 flights4.0%
- 1–2 hours late6 flights2.4%
- 2+ hours late3 flights1.2%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 251 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 36 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 13 still arrived on time. 8 flights left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 433
The latest arrival of the period was on 5 October 2025, 4 hours 10 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as carrier-caused (crew, maintenance, fuelling, baggage). The same cause led on five of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 5 October 2025 | 4 hours 10 minutes | Carrier |
| 25 October 2025 | 2 hours 40 minutes | Carrier |
| 31 January 2026 | 2 hours 22 minutes | Carrier |
| 8 May 2026 | 1 hour 54 minutes | Carrier |
| 28 January 2026 | 1 hour 36 minutes | Carrier |
Delay causes
Why AS 433 runs late
Carrier accounts for 69% of the 1,705 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 69%Carrier
- 22%National Airspace System
- 8%Late-arriving aircraft
- 1%Security
The largest share of delay minutes, 69%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 1,171 of the 1,705 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 1,705 delay minutes reported on AS 433.
Cancellations are rare at 0.79%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.6% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
At 2,087 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
The same number turns up on three other city pairs in the data, including SEA to ANC (68), JNU to SEA (27) and LAX to SEA (2), but none flew often enough under AS 433 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to TPA to SAN only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 253 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 433
For a booking, AS 433 has one of the better records a US domestic flight can show: 87.6% on time and 0.79% cancelled. That is a base rate, not a promise about any single day.
Related
Where to go next
- Tampa International (TPA) delay statistics
- San Diego International (SAN) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Worst months to fly in the US, ranked by the data
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.