Flight number record

AS 433

Alaska Airlines · Tampa to San Diego

Route: TPA → SAN
Departs: 09:00
Flights: 315
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 433, check with Alaska Airlines.

AS 433 earns an A. More than four flights in five arrive inside the 15-minute window the DOT uses to define an on-time arrival, which puts it 8 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. When something does go wrong the average delay runs roughly 50 minutes. That rests on 315 flights, with a median arrival 14 minutes early.

Set against the rest of the country, AS 433's record is 8 points better than the US average of 77.6%. That gap is worth roughly 76 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.

On time

85.2%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 310 completed flights

Avg delay

52 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

1.27%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

3.9%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 315 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 14 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Schedule

When AS 433 flies

AS 433 flies TPA to SAN without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 09:00, used on 91 of 315 flights, with 08:05 (45 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.

Departs 09:0091 flights28.9%
Departs 08:0545 flights14.3%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 09:00 departure sits in the 8am–11am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 84.1%, and AS 433 runs level with that at 85.2%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.

Against the route

AS 433 next to TPA to SAN

Every carrier on TPA to SAN combined arrived on time 75.5% of the time across 615 flights, so AS 433 is 10 points ahead of it. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight beats by 6 points.

AS 433 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
AS 433thin sample	315	85.2%	52 min	1.27%	A
All Alaska Airlines on TPA–SANthin sample	364	84.1%	56 min	1.37%	B
All carriers on TPA–SAN	615	75.5%	47 min	0.81%	B+
Alaska Airlines, whole network	293,372	79.1%	52 min	1.28%	B

Across the year

AS 433 quarter by quarter

AS 433 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jan–Mar 2026 at 90.0% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2025 at 79.5%, a swing of 11 points on roughly 79 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202592 flights79.5%
Oct–Dec 202591 flights86.8%
Jan–Mar 202690 flights90.0%
Apr–Jun 202642 flights82.9%

Scale runs 70% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, AS 433 did best on Monday at 90.9% on time and worst on Saturday at 74.4%. Each day rests on about 45 flights, so a gap of 17 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why AS 433 runs late

One category carries most of the weight here. Carrier accounts for 53% of the 2,368 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Carrier
53%
National Airspace System
30%
Late-arriving aircraft
16%
Security
1%

The largest share of delay minutes, 53%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 1,258 of the 2,368 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 2,368 delay minutes reported on AS 433.

Cancellations sit at 1.27% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.32%.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.9% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.

At 2,087 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.

The same number turns up on two other city pairs in the data, including JNU to SEA (27) and SEA to ANC (21), but none flew often enough under AS 433 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to TPA to SAN only.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 315 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking AS 433

For a booking, AS 433 has one of the better records a US domestic flight can show: 85.2% on time and 1.27% cancelled. That is a base rate, not a promise about any single day.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures