Flight number record

AS 15

Alaska Airlines · Washington to San Diego

Route: DCA → SAN
Departs: 08:59
Flights: 364
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 15, check with Alaska Airlines.

AS 15 sits in the middle of the pack with a C. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 9 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land roughly 50 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 364 flights, with a median arrival 4 minutes late.

The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so AS 15 runs 9 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 86 extra late arrivals.

On time

69.0%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 355 completed flights

Avg delay

49 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

1.65%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

7.0%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 364 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. On-time means an arrival less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time, the same threshold the Department of Transportation uses in its own reports. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and counted separately, which is why the cancellation column matters on its own.

Schedule

When AS 15 flies

AS 15 is scheduled to leave Washington (DCA) at 08:59 local time and reach San Diego (SAN) at 11:39. That slot held for 319 of the 364 scheduled departures in the data, so the figures below describe one steady operation rather than a number that moved around the clock.

Departs 08:59319 flights87.6%
Departs 09:5945 flights12.4%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 08:59 departure sits in the 8am–11am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 84.1%, and AS 15 runs 15 points worse at 69.0%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.

Against the route

AS 15 next to DCA to SAN

Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight trails by 10 points.

AS 15 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
AS 15thin sample	364	69.0%	49 min	1.65%	C
All Alaska Airlines on DCA–SANthin sample	364	69.0%	49 min	1.65%	C
All carriers on DCA–SANthin sample	364	69.0%	49 min	1.65%	C
Alaska Airlines, whole network	293,372	79.1%	52 min	1.28%	B

Across the year

AS 15 quarter by quarter

AS 15 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 81.1% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 64.4%, a swing of 17 points on roughly 91 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202592 flights64.4%
Oct–Dec 202591 flights65.9%
Jan–Mar 202690 flights64.4%
Apr–Jun 202691 flights81.1%

Scale runs 55% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, AS 15 did best on Monday at 78.4% on time and worst on Friday at 59.6%. Each day rests on about 52 flights, so a gap of 19 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why AS 15 runs late

One category carries most of the weight here. National Airspace System accounts for 49% of the 5,365 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

National Airspace System
49%
Carrier
38%
Extreme weather
13%
Security
0%

Extreme weather accounts for 13% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the quarterly figures above are the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.1 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 5,365 delay minutes reported on AS 15.

Cancellations sit at 1.65% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.82%.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

7.0% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last roughly 50 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.

At 2,276 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.

Every one of the 364 flights under AS 15 in the data flew DCA to SAN. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 364 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking AS 15

For a booking, read AS 15 as 69.0% on time with 1.65% cancelled over 364 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures