Flight number record
AS 15
Alaska Airlines · Washington to San Diego
- Route
- DCA → SAN
- Departs
- 08:59
- Flights
- 364
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 15, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 15 sits in the middle of the pack with a C. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 5 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land about 50 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 364 flights, with a median arrival 1 minute early.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so AS 15 runs 5 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 48 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
72.5%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 356 completed flights
Avg delay
51 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.37%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
7.3%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 364 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. On-time means an arrival less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time, the same threshold the Department of Transportation uses in its own reports. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and counted separately, which is why the cancellation column matters on its own.
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Schedule
When AS 15 flies
AS 15 is scheduled to leave Washington (DCA) at 08:59 local time and reach San Diego (SAN) at 11:39. That slot held for 318 of the 364 scheduled departures in the data, so the figures below describe one steady operation rather than a number that moved around the clock.
- Departs 08:59318 flights87.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 08:59 departure sits in the 8am–11am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 83.9%, and AS 15 runs 11 points worse at 72.5%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.
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Against the route
AS 15 next to DCA to SAN
Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight trails by 7 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 15thin sample | 364 | 72.5% | 51 min | 1.37% | C |
| All Alaska Airlines on DCA–SANthin sample | 364 | 72.5% | 51 min | 1.37% | C |
| All carriers on DCA–SANthin sample | 364 | 72.5% | 51 min | 1.37% | C |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 15 quarter by quarter
AS 15 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2026 at 87.1% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 64.4%, a swing of 23 points on roughly 91 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202530 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202591 flights65.9%
- Jan–Mar 202690 flights64.4%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights81.1%
- Jul–Sep 202662 flights87.1%
Scale runs 55% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 15 did best on Monday at 82.7% on time and worst on Friday at 62.5%. Each day rests on about 52 flights, so a gap of 20 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 15 runs when it is late
The 98 late arrivals split 45 under half an hour, 27 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 26 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early87 flights24.4%
- Within 15 min171 flights48.0%
- 15–29 min late45 flights12.6%
- 30–59 min late27 flights7.6%
- 1–2 hours late19 flights5.3%
- 2+ hours late7 flights2.0%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 356 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 92 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 34 still arrived on time. In the other direction, 40 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at SAN.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 15
The latest arrival of the period was on 28 January 2026, 6 hours 32 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as carrier-caused (crew, maintenance, fuelling, baggage). The five worst days are spread across January, February, June and December, with no single month standing out.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 28 January 2026 | 6 hours 32 minutes | Carrier |
| 27 January 2026 | 3 hours 28 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 17 February 2026 | 2 hours 38 minutes | National Airspace System |
| 12 June 2026 | 2 hours 37 minutes | Carrier |
| 5 December 2025 | 2 hours 36 minutes | Extreme weather |
Delay causes
Why AS 15 runs late
National Airspace System accounts for 45% of the 4,995 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 45%National Airspace System
- 40%Carrier
- 15%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
Extreme weather accounts for 15% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the quarterly figures above are the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.5 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 4,995 delay minutes reported on AS 15.
Cancellations sit at 1.37% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.82%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
7.3% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about 50 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 2,276 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 364 flights under AS 15 in the data flew DCA to SAN. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 364 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 15
For a booking, read AS 15 as 72.5% on time with 1.37% cancelled over 364 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- San Diego International (SAN) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Worst months to fly in the US, ranked by the data
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.